SHORT TIME ENERGY FORECASTING FOR XYZ ELECTRICITY DISTRIBUTION COMPANY USING FUZZY GOAL PROGRAMMING

Abstract

In this paper, an optimal electricity allocation model (OEAM) was developed for efficient energy consumption. This was done by constructing a weighted mini sum fuzzy goal programming model where the membership functions (of the objectives) are considered as fuzzy goals and weights are introduced to the under deviational variables . In the achievement function, the under deviational variables were minimized. The results obtained showed a very good reflection of the previous energy consumption patterns in the districts. The objective function minimized gave a value of 0.000 which is a global optimum solutions, and infeasibilities zero. In the period under review, the over deviational variable values were 1.247200KWH for energy and N0.60k for revenue generation. A projection based upon the Oshogbo power control station of 10% was performed for the year 2020 and the total energy requirement in the next six years for the zone is 290,268,416.20kwh. The use of the electricity allocation model is recommended for implementation in the XYZ Electricity Distribution Zone and other electricity distribution Zones.